If a finding is true, then rerunning the experiment should generally yield the same outcome. If it’s false, then the result will vanish like a mirage.
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Replication is slow, unglamorous work. It takes time and money while producing nothing new or innovative. But psychology knows the stakes and is beginning to face its demons. One high-profile project, published in 2015, performed careful replications of 100 psychological studies. The findings made headlines: 61 of the 100 failed to replicate.
In that grim news, I see progress. The research community is taking a sobering look in the mirror and owning up to the truth, as ugly as it may be. Now social psychologists hope that other fields, such as medicine, will follow their lead.
Science has never been defined by infallibility or superhuman perfection. It has always been about healthy skepticism, about putting every hypothesis to the test. In this struggle, is the field of statistics an essential ally. Yes, it has played a part in bringing science to the brink, but just as surely, it will play a part in bringing science back.
